Have you seen the price of basic food items in the supermarkets lately?

Bread, cornflakes, soy milk and anything made out of grain or legumes will all cost a lot more in 2008. Chicken meat, beef and pork that come from grain fed animal stock will not be excluded. Between August and October, coinciding with the rise up of the Jamaica Labour Party led government, the price of food in the USA went up at a 5% annual rate, almost three times faster than that country's overall inflation, according to the Consumer Price Index calculated by the U.S. Department of Labor.

Over the same period, Jamaica experienced hurricane Dean and shower, shower and more shower, that almost devastated our farms produce. The price of items like tomatoes, Irish potatoes, bread, have all sky rocketed. Farm eggs have practically disappeared from some supermarkets until recently and the price that this commands is indicative of the inelasticity of this item at Christmas - Christmas pudding is a must and eggs are definitely required in the 'mix'. Jamaica's consumer price index that had the bread basket holding down inflation for several years got 'modernised' and the inflation rate now reflects closer to what the situation entails in today's Jamaica. The truth is, our inflation rate has been closer to double digits for much longer than the previous administration cared to admit.

The galloping food prices in the supermarkets make people afraid to shop for grocery. Ever heard of supermarket phobia? We hear talks daily of what government intends to do for the poor and a lot of us are asking the question "who are the poor"? Expect prices to climb further in 2008, whether or not the U.S. economy slips into a recession - Jamaica's substitute farm produce as well as whole grains come from the USA, and what we are experiencing is a double whammy effect of the US experience and world food prices that our governement isn't able to subsidise.

World wheat prices as of Dec. 1, 2007, were almost 65% higher than they were a year ago, while those of soybean almost 70% higher, milk at 100% higher and chicken prices at a 10-year high, according to the United Nations (U.N.) Food and Agricultural Organization. The U.N. agency's food price index, up 9% in 2006, had already climbed 37% in 2007 as of Sept. 30.

While we need to produce more of what we eat in Jamaica, our local farmers must become more proactive in their farm management and conservation efforts. There is no reason for Jamaica not to be self sufficient in ground produce, whole grains, meats, poultry and vegetables. The Government of Jamaica should provide incentives for farmers by providing new land that can be put into cultivation, water for irrigation, cheaper source of fertilizer, R&D to improve seed health and quality through technology. This should not only ensure self-sufficiency, it would boost Jamaica's contribution to the over 200 million tons a year grain harvest.

Footnote: the statistical information quoted in this blog was adapted from Jim Jubal's article.